Infections
from the Ebola epidemic in Liberia and Sierra Leone could soar to 1.4
million cases by mid-January unless the global community mounts a rapid
response to the West African crisis, according to estimates released
Tuesday by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.
However, this worst-case scenario may be
averted, given the international relief response to the epidemic during
the past month, CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden said during a morning news
conference.
The reported projections are based on
numbers from the end of August, and since then the United States and
other nations have stepped up their relief efforts.
“One of the things that’s been so striking is how fluid things have been on the ground,” Frieden said.
“Even a week or two ago, I would have expected things to look differently than they do now.”
Ebola cases in West Africa currently
have reached an estimated 5,800 infections in people and more than 2,800
deaths, according to the World Health Organisation.
The new CDC model specifically focuses
on the value of isolating Ebola patients to prevent spread of the deadly
virus. The agency found that up to now, total Ebola cases are doubling
approximately every 20 days in the two countries because people with the
virus are coming into contact with healthy people and infecting them.
If seven out of 10 Ebola patients were
isolated in their homes or a treatment center, the epidemic in both
Liberia and Sierra Leone could be broken by mid-January — a drastically
different projection than the worst-case scenario, officials said.
“If you get enough people effectively isolated, the epidemic can be stopped,” Frieden said.
“Related to that, when you reach a
higher enough number, the number of cases plummets rapidly, almost as
rapidly as the exponential rise we’re seeing now.”
