In this two-part series, I examine the
strengths and weaknesses of the two major parties, the Peoples
Democratic Party and the All Progressives Congress, as they engage in
interesting political gymnastics, preparatory to the 2015 presidential
election, which is barely four months away. My
focus is on the prospects
of each party’s candidate at winning the election. Specifically, I
highlight the factors in each candidate’s favour.
I
begin with the PDP, not only because it is the party in power but also
because it seems to have zeroed in on President Goodluck Jonathan as its
candidate for the 2015 presidential election. Next week, I will examine
the prospects of the APC at winning the same election. Right now, its
choice of a presidential candidate remains unclear among former Head of
State, Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar,
and the Governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso, although, going by
media coverage, the contest seems to be between Buhari and Atiku.
Let
me acknowledge at the outset that Jonathan has quite a task ahead in
convincing an electorate that is sceptical about his performance in the
last six years. His perceived non-performance in various sectors and the
weak fights against Boko Haram and corruption led Bayo Olupohunda to
conclude that Jonathan “may lose as an incumbent” (The PUNCH,
October 9, 2014). My focus here is on the other side of the coin: No
matter how much we may hate the PDP and abhor Jonathan’s record, neither
the party nor Jonathan could be written off completely.
First,
since electoral politics is about the strategies and manoeuvres
employed to win votes, there are three things that Jonathan and the PDP
have done that could be considered electorally smart. We may not like
them at all, but they could eventually translate into victory. First,
all perceived opponents of the party leadership were pushed out. This is
particularly true of those who may compete with Jonathan within the
same party for the 2015 presidential ticket. At the same time, those who
would toe the President’s line were wooed into the party, even after
they had left it.
Second, the
erstwhile controversial Chairman of the party, Dr. Bamanga Tukur, was
edged out in order to douse the tension that had developed within the
party’s leadership, including the PDP governors. Even ministers whose
loyalty was doubted were shown the door. Subsequently, a deal was sealed
between Jonathan, on the one hand, and his cabinet and the party
leadership at federal and state levels, on the other hand, leading to a
unanimous endorsement of his candidacy.
Third,
in a well-choreographed series of political ads, including TV
commercials, billboards, and other promotional activities, including
rallies, the public has been inundated with Jonathan’s endorsements. You
may not agree with “Chief Zebrudiah Okoroigwe Nwogbo”’s portrayal of
Jonathan’s achievements, but you cannot forget his memorable line, “Are
you seeing what am saw”?
True, there
are rumblings within state chapters of the PDP, as there are within
those of the APC, it is clear that scores have been settled within the
PDP leadership hierarchy, particularly the Board of Trustees and the
National Working Committee of the party. Even more importantly, for
purposes of the presidential election, all fingers now point to
Jonathan’s anointment.
While these
developments may not necessarily translate into votes among the educated
elite, who may have made up their mind (but many of whom don’t even
vote at all), there are independent voters who may be swayed, not to
speak of bread-and-butter voters, who are in the millions.
This
leads to the second major factor that may work in Jonathan’s favour in
the election: When incumbency and the control of various electoral
weapons are factored in, Jonathan may have the upper hand in taking
advantage of many of the major variables to which voters often respond
in presidential elections, namely, (1) toeing the party line; (2)
responding to primordial identities of ethnicity, region, or religion;
(3) following the money and (4) the candidate’s likability.
A
third factor that may work in Jonathan’s favour is the APC’s poor
electoral machinery to date. It remains unclear to many observers why
the party’s readiness for an election that is only four months away
appears doubtful. True, the party has yet to decide on its presidential
candidate, but why not sell the party’s manifesto, including blueprints
on security, education, health, agriculture, infrastructural
development, the economy (including diversification plans), and so on?
Moreover, what prevents the APC from engaging in sensitisation tours and
running TV ads and jingles on its programmes, even when no candidate is
mentioned? Why not counter the claims in Jonathan’s ads with facts and
figures in its own ads?
The APC’s
lacklustre preparations for the 2015 elections engendered Sabella
Abidde’s public wailing in two aptly titled articles, namely, Is the APC
taking a nap? (The PUNCH, August 13, 2014) and, What is the problem with the APC? (The PUNCH,
September 24, 2014). For now, the APC’s failures are Jonathan’s gains,
and the gains will multiply if the APC comes out bruised from its
presidential primary.
Notice that I
have not dwelled on the power of incumbency, which may be considered as
the fourth major factor in Jonathan’s favour. This includes the control
over the nation’s human and material resources, the security services,
and the electoral empires. The deployment of various resources during
the election period may translate into votes, especially from
bread-and-butter voters.
This is not
to say that the electoral coast is all clear for Jonathan. He still
needs to campaign hard and showcase his record with facts, figures, and
images. For example, how many federal roads has his administration
really completed or repaved, and where exactly are they located? How
many additional megawatts of electricity have been generated or will
soon be generated under his watch? What gains in the education sector
will he cite to counter the declining educational fortunes of our youths
under his watch? What has he got to say about corruption, missing oil
funds, and crude oil theft? Why does Nigeria’s rising economic profile
fail to translate into improved standard of living for the average
Nigerian?
